Portfolio optimization using a hybrid of fuzzy ANP, VIKOR and TOPSIS

One of the primary questions in asset management is to find good combinations of different assets and this has been an interesting area of research for over half a century. The proposed model of this paper uses decision makers' feedbacks based on multiple criteria decision making technique to find an appropriate portfolio. We first select some important financial criteria and then using decision makers' opinions and by implementation of some fuzzy network analysis we find appropriate weights of the asset. The proposed model uses two multiple criteria techniques namely TOPSIS and VIKOR and the model is examined for some real-world data from Tehran Stock Exchange. The results of the implementation of the proposed model have been examined against Markowitz traditional model. The preliminary results indicate that the proposed model of this paper performs reasonably well compared with alternative method

An Intelligent technical analysis using neural network

Technical analysis has been one of the most popular methods for stock market predictions for the past few decades. There have been enormous technical analysis methods to study the behavior of stock market for different kinds of trading markets such as currency, commodity or stock. In this paper, we propose two different methods based on volume adjusted moving average and ease of movement for stock trading. These methods are used with and without generalized regression neural network methods and the results are compared with each other. The preliminary results on historical stock price of 20 firms indicate that there is no meaningful difference between various proposed models of this paper

Analysis the risk contagion from financial sector to other economic sectors

This research has three main goals. The first goal is to investigate the contagion of the risk from the financial sector to other industries. The second objective is to examine the impact of the competitiveness of industries on the spread of the risk sequence from the financial sector to the industries, and the third objective is to examine the effect of three main industrial indicators, namely, net debt, value spread and investment spread, on the risk contagion from the financial sector to other industries. In this research, a new measurement method of the spillover of the risk sequence from the financial sector to other industries has been introduced as the occurrence of similar conditions, which for each industry in each period is equal to the number of simultaneous occurrences of severe negative returns in that industry and the financial sector. Empirical findings show that the contagion of the risk from the financial sector to other industries was significant and this contagion was greater for competitive industries due to the greater need for external financing. The occurrence of similar conditions in each sector has a positive relationship with the net debt of that industry. Also, there is no relationship between the value spread and the investment spread with the occurrence of similar conditions

Energy efficiency improvement for broiler production using non-parametric techniques

The goal of this study was to evaluate the sustainability and efficiency of broiler production with regard to energy consumption in Ardabil province, Iran. To reach the goal, linear programming model and Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) were employed.  Data were collected from the farmers using a face–to–face questionnaire performed in September–December 2014 period.  The DEA application results showed that the average values of technical, pure technical and scale efficiency scores of producers were 0.949, 0.988 and 0.960, respectively.   Also, energy saving target ratio for broiler production was calculated as 8.33%, indicating that by following the recommendations resulted from this study, about 12316.85 MJ/(1000 bird) of total input energy could be saved while holding the constant level of broiler production.  The results of linear programming model revealed that by using of optimum energy, producers could increase average yield by 17.6%.   Also the results indicated that the existing productivity level could be achieved even by reducing the existing energy use level by 13.89%.  Diesel fuel, natural gas and electricity energy inputs had the highest potential for saving energy in two methods; so, if inefficient producers would pay more attention towards these sources, they would considerably improve their energy productivity

The Impact of Market Power and Income Structure on the Profitability and Insolvency Risk in Iran Banking System

The advent of financial crises often lead to a banking crisis and if the economy is not able to overcome this, it can endanger the country into bankruptcy. Therefore, on the one hand, perusing different dimensions of banking system and influential factors can deter destructive events in system and on the other hand in case of a meltdown can pave the way to conquer. In this research after studying the principles of market power and income structure in banking sector, the impact of these two factors on banking performance from profitability and insolvency risk perspectives will be discussed. The results of this research which has been done using the financial information of 17 banks in the period of 2007 to 2015 show that the more market power measured by Lerner index, the better the profitability would be and in this circumstance banks will be more stable. It has also shown that the incremental share of noninterest income in total revenue leads to higher profitability in general but after 2011 this effect has reversed. Furthermore, more noninterest income led to more insolvency risk

Anticholinergic drug use in Older People: A Population- Based Study in Iran

Background: Elderly people are in need of several drugs due to physiological changes and multiple chronic diseases. Studies have shown that anticholinergic drugs can cause cognitive impairment, reduced physical activity, and increased mortality in elderly population. Paying attention to the anticholinergic medication use in older adults can prevent the occurrence of adverse events and increase the quality of health care. This study was conducted to quantify exposure to anticholinergic medicines in older people in Amirkola. Methods: This study is a part of the comprehensive cohort project that was being conducted from 2011 on the case patients of 60 years and above that referred to the Amirkola Health Center. A total of 1532 individuals were included, of whom 54.9 were men. The drug information was obtained by observing the patient’s prescription and self-report questionnaires and collected data were analyzed by SPSS software. Exposure to anticholinergic medications was measured using the drug burden index-anticholinergic (DBI-Ach) and the anticholinergic drug scale (ADS). Results: Among the 1532 elderly people with an average age of 69.21 years, 29 had DBI>0 and 36.3 had ADS>0. Also, there was a significant correlation between DBI and ADS (R=0.758). In addition, there is a significant relationship between sex variable with DBI and ADS (P=0.0001). So, women in comparison with men had higher values of DBI and ADS. Conclusion: The findings of this study indicate that anticholinergic exposure is relatively high especially in older women, which posed special precautions to avoid inappropriate prescribing in the elderly

Factors affecting blood donation intervals and patterns of return based on a sample in southern Iran : a follow-up design

OBJECTIVE : The main goal of blood transfusion centers is to recruit and retain more qualified blood donors. This study aimed to identify the factors influencing the return of volunteer blood donors. MATERIAL AND METHODS : A cohort study was conducted on all blood donors who donated blood for the first time, from March 21, 2013, to March 20, 2014. They were followed up for five years (up to March 20, 2018). Demographic characteristics, type of blood donation and time interval between two blood donations were recorded as recurrent events. Data were then analyzed using Logit Model for Multinomial Responses and Cox's shared frailty model. RESULTS : Of the 2010 blood donors, 33.7% as the repeated donor and 16.2% as the regular donor had regular donations. The frequency of blood donation was in the range of 1 to 20 with a mean of 4.54±3.29. There was a significant reverse relationship between the number of donations and the time interval between two donations. The variables of gender, marital status and occupation had a significant effect on the blood donation of the repeated and regular donors. Genders, age at the time of the first donation, marital status and occupation had a significant effect on the intervals between blood donations. CONCLUSION : Most of blood supply of Iran is provided by men and first-time donors. Since the decision to donate and keep donating blood involves many complex issues applied programs are require to convert women and first-time donors into regular donors.http://www.romj.org/Statistic

The risk factors and related hospitalizations for cases with positive and negative COVID-19 tests: A case-control study

Background: The aim of this study was to evaluate the risk factors for hospitalizations of cases with positive and negative COVID-19 tests. Methods: In this case-control study, the case and control groups consisted of 292 COVID-19 patients and 296 non-COVID-19 patients. Patients who referred to a reference laboratory in Tehran (Iran) in March 2020 were selected and interviewed. The patients were contacted by telephone and data were recorded through a questionnaire. Results: The sample of this study consisted of 588 patients (349 59% females, 239 41% males) with a mean age of 42 ± 15. The results of this study showed that comorbidities like diabetes (OR = 7.42), hypertension (OR = 4.85), asthma and respiratory diseases (OR = 5.64) in addition to symptoms including fever (OR = 6.67), chills (OR = 11.2), anorexia (OR = 11.3), dyspnea (OR = 4.8), weakness and lethargy (OR = 5.7) were the most predictive variables for hospitalization of non-COVID-19 cases. Furthermore, demographical variables like male gender (OR = 3.71), high age (>50; OR = 3.12), BMI (>25; OR = 2.37), travel (OR = 2.79), comorbidities including diabetes (OR = 5.26), hypertension (OR = 3.7) and underlying immunosuppressant patients receiving corticosteroid therapy (OR = 3.62) in addition to symptoms like anorexia OR = 2.55 and dyspnea (OR = 6.99) tend to increase the risk of hospital admission in COVID-19 patients, suggesting their predictive values for hospitalization of COVID-19 patients. Conclusion: Our results indicated that different factors tend to increase the odds of hospital admission in patients with positive and negative COVID-19 tests, suggesting their predictive values for hospitalization. © 202

IFI27 transcription is an early predictor for COVID-19 outcomes, a multi-cohort observational study

PurposeRobust biomarkers that predict disease outcomes amongst COVID-19 patients are necessary for both patient triage and resource prioritisation. Numerous candidate biomarkers have been proposed for COVID-19. However, at present, there is no consensus on the best diagnostic approach to predict outcomes in infected patients. Moreover, it is not clear whether such tools would apply to other potentially pandemic pathogens and therefore of use as stockpile for future pandemic preparedness.MethodsWe conducted a multi-cohort observational study to investigate the biology and the prognostic role of interferon alpha-inducible protein 27 (IFI27) in COVID-19 patients.ResultsWe show that IFI27 is expressed in the respiratory tract of COVID-19 patients and elevated IFI27 expression in the lower respiratory tract is associated with the presence of a high viral load. We further demonstrate that the systemic host response, as measured by blood IFI27 expression, is associated with COVID-19 infection. For clinical outcome prediction (e.g., respiratory failure), IFI27 expression displays a high sensitivity (0.95) and specificity (0.83), outperforming other known predictors of COVID-19 outcomes. Furthermore, IFI27 is upregulated in the blood of infected patients in response to other respiratory viruses. For example, in the pandemic H1N1/09 influenza virus infection, IFI27-like genes were highly upregulated in the blood samples of severely infected patients.ConclusionThese data suggest that prognostic biomarkers targeting the family of IFI27 genes could potentially supplement conventional diagnostic tools in future virus pandemics, independent of whether such pandemics are caused by a coronavirus, an influenza virus or another as yet-to-be discovered respiratory virus